Note: This model is being re-run on a regular basis. Analysis and data will change over time. Please check back regularly for the latest simulation.
Alberta Provincial Election Projection
This is a model designed to forecast the outcome of the Alberta provincial election if it happened today. The model draws inspiration from other forecasters and was created for fun and not intended to provide predictions of the future.
Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.
The model works by aggregrating polling data from recent pollsters. Weighting is calculated from date and size of poll. Regional polling is used to enhance the model, and additional features may be added over time. This model is primarily a poll based model, but may be enhanced using other features such as incumbency advantage, regional information, and so on. The model is typically but not exclusively a uniform swing model.
Monte Carlo estimation is used to determine the projections over 40 000 simulations. Simulations are aggregrated at the riding level and used to determine the likely outcome of the election if it were held today.
The seat distribution chart is a sample of 1000 simulations from the model graphed to show where the most likely outcomes are. This data can be analyzed further in the Seat Projection section.
Popular vote modelling appears to suggest the NDP are likely to secure a larger amount of the vote than the UCP (but it’s close, probably too close to call). However, the plurality of votes required is not based on popular vote, but rather on votes in specific electoral districts.
Vote share often does not relate directly to electoral victories. Specifically, in the 2023 Alberta election, the NDP is polling extremely favourably in Edmonton and urban areas, this may result in an overperformance in the popular vote and an underperformance in the seat distribution.
|Party||Vote Share (mean)||Vote Share(max)||Vote Share(min)|
Most Seats Projection
A more useful metric may be how often the model predicts that a given party wins the most seats in the election. This may be further broken down in the future into majority and minority scenarios. However, given the low probability of the AP winning a single seat, (less than 1%), the most seats is likely to result in a majority government.
|Party||Odds Most Seats|
|Party||Seats (mean)||Seats (max)||Seats (min)|
Seat projections provide insight into how the model predicts each party will do electorally. This projection gives an idea of what possible majority and minority situations will look like if the election were to be held today.